Envisioning a Low Carbon Future
MEDEC is a roadmap for CO2 reductions in Mexico's transport sector. Photo by alex-s.
"The transport results generated by CTS-México are among the most important MEDEC findings, both for their potential to inform Mexican climate change policy, but also for the broader implications globally of the critical role that transportation can and should play [in reducing greenhouse gas emissions].”
–Todd Johnson
Senior Energy Specialist
The World Bank
If Mexico continues with its current pattern of motorization and urban development, the transport sector will produce 410 megatons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030—almost two and a half times more than current levels.
This startling prediction comes from a low-carbon scenario analysis, known locally as MEDEC, conducted for the transport sector in 2008 by CTS-México as part of The World Bank’s Investment Framework for Clean Energy. CTS-México tested 13 different strategies for carbon dioxide reductions, involving new vehicle technology, as well as transport and urban planning policies. If implemented, ten of the most viable options, including dense urban development, non-motorized transport and optimization of mass transit, could potentially reduce up to about 1,300 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.
CTS-México is working with the Mexican government to incorporate some of the recommended strategies into two federal initiatives: the Special Program for Climate Change, a long-term vision for climate change mitigation, and the National Fund for Infrastructure, the country’s first-ever fund for mass transit infrastructure.
